International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week updated the World Economic Outlook (WEO). According to the updated forecast, global GDP is expected to fall by 4.4% this year, which is, among other things, a fold more than 1% decline during the global financial crisis in 2009. Growth is expected to be 5.2% next year.
Of the main economies, the largest decline this year should be recorded in Spain, whose GDP should fall by an unprecedented 12.8%. The only large economy that will grow this year should be China, specifically by 1.9%. Thus, China will continue to significantly increase its influence in the world economy.
It is therefore evident that the world economy is currently in the deepest economic recession since World War II. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund emphasizes that its current forecasts involve enormous risk and uncertainty. Of course, further developments will primarily depend on the development of a global pandemic.
Investment Strategist at Conseq Investment Management, a.s.