News

DAILY SKETCH - Bond yields to maturity are at all-time lows

From the overall global perspective, bond yields to maturity are at all-time lows. As today's chart shows, 30% of all globally issued bonds carry a negative yield to maturity. A negative bond yield to maturity means that if an investor buys such a bond and holds it until...

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Financial repression on bond markets

The current situation on the global bond markets can be characterized as the financial repression. This is defined as the situation on the bond markets, when real bond yields to maturity, i.e. nominal yields adjusted for inflation, are negative. According to available data...

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - At the beginning of the year our investment strategy is performing very well

At the beginning of this year, our investment strategy is working very well for us so far. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World so far attributes a positive appreciation of 2.1%. At the same time, our main stock bets are doing significantly better. Emerging...

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Number of zombie companies at an all-time high

Today's chart shows that the share of the so-called zombie companies in OECD countries rose to a new all-time high of around 16% last year. A zombie company is defined as a company whose average operating profit for the last three years is lower than the interest cost of...

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH – Global stock markets valuations are at the highest level since 2000

Our global composite proprietary equity valuation is currently at +52% which the highest level since the beginning of 2000 at the peak of the technology bubble. Global stock markets thus appear to be overvalued by approximately 50%. At the same time, this overvaluation is...

• Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Stock markets continued to grow strongly

Stock markets continued to grow very strongly over the past week. As a result, the broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World recorded a gain of 2.7%.

• Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Equities may not be that expensive

According to traditional valuation indicators such as P/E, global stock markets are extremely overvalued. However, if we take into account the massive growth of the global money supply due to the unprecedented quantitative easing of key central banks, the valuation of global...

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH – Equities are completely detached from corporate fundamentals

Equities have a strong historical tendency to follow the development of corporate fundamentals in the longer term, i.e. especially corporate earnings. As a result, the ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings – P/E valuation ratio – also has a strong tendency to...

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH – Global volume of bonds with a negative yield at an all-time high

The global volume of bonds with a negative yield to maturity is currently at an all-time high of $ 18 trillion. This corresponds to approximately 20% of all globally issued bonds. A negative bond yield to maturity means that if the investor holds such a bond until maturity...

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH – Global volume of IPOs in 2020 reached its highest level since 2007

Global volume of initial public offerings (IPOs) reached its highest level in 2020 since 2007, as new shares worth $ 300 billion were issued.

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH – The unprecedented volume of quantitative easing drove financial markets to an all-tim

The reaction of central banks to the global pandemic was truly unprecedented last year. Central banks printed $ 9.2 trillion last year, three times that of 2008 during the global financial crisis.

• Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY – The last week of 2020 was held in a positive spirit

The last week of 2020 was positive on the global financial markets. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World recorded a gain of 1.4% and for the whole of 2020 recorded a highly above-average gain of 14.3%.

• Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - According to the Crescat valuation model US equities are the most expensive in histor

According to the Crescat valuation model US equities are the most expensive in history. The valuation variables of the model are shown in the following table. Virtually all valuation variables are at or near the level of the 100th percentile, or the highest historical level.

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH – Performance of global financial markets was phenomenal this year, despite the pandemi

Apart from the positive news from the end of the year regarding coronavirus vaccines, the fundamental news affecting global financial markets has generally been extremely negative this year. We should mention in particular the following.

• Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH – Warren Buffett's valuation indicator indicates a significant overvaluation of global

Recently, I have often written about the fact that global stock markets are very expensive. This view is also supported by the so-called Warren Buffett valuation indicator, which is defined as the ratio of the global equity market capitalization, i.e. the market value of all...

• Daily sketch

PF 2021

Wishing you a Merry Christmas with your loved ones and may you have a very prosperous personal and professional year in 2021!

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY – Global stock markets declined slightly

Global stock markets fell slightly last week as the broadest global stock index, MSCI All Country World, fell 0.5%. From a regional perspective, emerging markets outperformed this time, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index up 0.5%. Developed markets depreciated by 0.7...

• Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK – The volume of bonds with a negative yield at a new historical high

The global volume of bonds with a negative yield to maturity has reached a new all-time high, which currently stands at $ 17.8 trillion. At the same time, these $ 17.8 trillion account for more than 20% of all globally issued bonds. Thus, more than a fifth of all bonds on...

• chart of the week

BOND MARKETS WEEKLY - Yield on the Portuguese 10-year government bond fell negative for the first ti

The yield to maturity of the Portuguese 10-year government bond fell negative for the first time yesterday and is currently at -0.006%. A negative bond yield until maturity means that an investor who buys a bond for this yield and will hold it until maturity will realize a...

• Bonds

EQUITY VALUATIONS WEEKLY – Equity valuations indicate significantly below-average expected returns

If we take into account the fact that the world economy is currently in the deepest economic recession since World War II, with global GDP expected to decline by 4.4% this year, according to the latest IMF forecast from October, global stock market performance since the...

• Equity valuations